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I think many people look at it based on life experience. They have seen life expectency change by about 5-7 years for people in their 20's and older. More success against childhood disease.
http://www.dohc.ie/statistics/health_statistics/table_b1.html
It has been a while since the major disease cures from vaccinations etc... were made. Plus they look at 15 years for a basic drug to get approved by the FDA.
They have seen the long campaigns against MD (Jerry Lewis, 40 years and still on the air), cancer, heart disease etc...
Plus now environment continues to cause problems for lifespan and lifestyle problems of obesity.
If several big diseases get cured every couple of years and there is major progress on the science front (gene therapy, RNAi, RNA activation, regeneration, stem cells actually being used to stop disease and enhance performance), then people would shift and say OK we are getting close, this could really happen.
For molecular nanotechnology, the recent successes with DNA nanotechnology, synthetic biology, rotaxanes, carbon nanotubes, directed self assembly, greater precision tools is starting to shift the debate from it is impossible to maybe it could happen but it will take a lot longer and be different and some people in government saying "Whether or not one believes in the Singularity, it is difficult to overestimate nanotechnology’s likely implications for society. For one thing, advances in just the last five years have proceeded much faster than even the best experts had predicted."
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2007/03/congress_and_th.html
There were "best experts" saying and predicting it could happen, but just not the ones that they were listening to.
However, convincing most people should not be the goal or the expectation. Some people could have successful SENS treatments and most people would be in denial or oblivious. The people and the talking heads who are against it are not doing much to stop the work or funding. People who believe the naysayers were not part of the group of possible early adopters of the concepts. It is only a matter of continuing to convince enough early researchers and funders to continue the work.
[Posted by: Brian Wang at April 3, 2007 1:48 PM]
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