500 Scientists

The rough estimate of resources required to develop - for mice - the medical capabilities called for by the Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) is presently $1 billion over ten years, give or take.

Each of these [six lines of research] would require total funding in the range of $2m to $15m per year, spread over at least three and sometimes ~15 research teams. These teams will typically be working in a university or other research setting. [The lines of research] span six of the seven types of "damage" that Dr. de Grey has identified as the key intermediates in aging; the one not listed here is cell loss, whose rectification by stem cell and growth factor therapies is the subject of sufficient existing work worldwide.

That's for the whole spectrum of longevity therapies: engineering the body to make cancer impossible; replacing lost cells; ensuring mitochondrial DNA damage can no longer cause issues; destroying unwanted cells that cause damage; breaking down crosslinks and amyloid that gum up biochemistry; removing hard-to-degrade biochemicals in old cells. Given all that, you should be able to rejuvenate aged mice, and extend their healthy lives considerably. Then it's onto moving the technology to work for humans, where the cost really starts to rack up - but with the technology demonstrated in mice, there should be plenty of enthusiasm to pay that cost.

What does a billion dollars and ten years really look like when you're taking about warm bodies, concrete and conferences? It turns out to represent something like 500 researchers, plus resources for equipment, facilities and support staff, if you keep things lean and distributed, making the best use of existing research facilities and ongoing programs.

If you apply the 1:9:90 rule to a research community, you can expect that a 500-scientist strong group will include perhaps 5 researchers who are very respected and appear in the media in connection with their research, 50 who are well known in the field and very capable, and the remaining 445 ranging from research associates to skilled scientists yet to reach the heights of their careers. This community might take the form of ten dedicated laboratories at large universities, a few for-profit enterprises, and more than fifty significant initiatives within other large research organizations.

For comparison, that is considerably larger than the present calorie restriction research community but considerably smaller than either the cancer or Alzheimer's research community. Calorie restriction research and development is probably well over $1 billion in investment to date, but only if you count funds for trials and commercialization employed by companies like Sirtris; I would imagine that basic and animal research has consumed rather less than that.

At the present time, I would be surprised to find more than 50 scientists worldwide working to develop biotechnologies that would fit into SENS as-is. Outside the regenerative medicine and cell therapy community, that is. Clearly, there is a way to go for fundraising and other efforts to influence the direction of research in the broader scientific community.

Comments

One great coup would be to get someone like Bill Gates or Warren Buffet convinced that SENS is worth a real shot.

Is it known if they even know about it, or have been approached?

Posted by: Michael G.R. at June 15th, 2008 8:46 AM

Even if you had $1 billion I doubt you could find 500 qualified scientists who take SENS seriously. Are there even 50?

Posted by: Joseph at June 16th, 2008 12:13 PM

Joseph, I couldn't say, do you know how many people have even considered the topic? Before it was instroduced to me, I had never considered it. I like to think that true scientists only rule out that for which there is proof that it is definitely impossible (and even then, I would hope that they don't like to use that word).

Once the word gets out that defeating aging might be possible (IS possible), hopefully there will be an increasing number of unbiased people who begin their education with the goal of defeating aging first on their list. Perhaps there will even be an increasing number of people like myself who originally took a different path but for whom quitting and starting all over makes perfect sense! What exactly is it that we're all doing right now that is more important?

Was it Reason who wrote recently something along the lines that we will all be ashamed, once the goal is acheived, that we did not try to work on it sooner?

Posted by: Kenny at June 16th, 2008 7:55 PM
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