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Early adopters are a form of investor - they provide much needed funds and validation for the continued development of new technologies, taking risks on the comparatively poor first commercial versions. In doing so, these folk play an important role in turning the wheel of progress. Stephen Gordon says it well:
Aubrey de Grey has a related theory about the development of life extension therapy. When asked if these treatments would only be available to the rich, Aubrey has responded that, yes, initially only the rich will be able to afford life extension treatments. But these early expensive therapies wouldn't be very effective anyway.
Later, de Grey argues, the price of these therapies will go down as their effectiveness goes up. There will be some mid-point where moderately money will buy moderately effectively treatments. Ultimately we'll have very inexpensive treatments that everyone can afford that will also be very effective.
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I think this movement from "expensive/relatively ineffective" to "cheap/effective" will happen fast with life extension. Once the world sees these therapies as something more than fantasy, we'll pour incredible resources into their development and dissemination. And since technological development is accelerating, progress will be faster by then.
I have been an early adopter several times in the past. Being human (and subject to temptation) I'll probably be first-in-line to buy some cool, marginally-useful gadget again. It might even happen that I'll feel compelled by the risks of age or diminished capacity to shell out big money for life extension version 1.0.
If so, the whipper-snappers who'll benefit later can toast me.
All new technologies - medical technologies included - are hard to produce, comparatively poor in quality and expensive. That is no more than simple economics; creating the new is difficult. Difficult is expensive. Expensive requires investment, and investments in early development must be seen to be recouped within the timeframe of comfort for the investors, or they will not be made in the first place.
Technologies become easily manufactured, of high quality and cheap very quickly if they take off in adoption - commercial revenue opens the door to greater investment in development, expansion of infrastructure for commercialization, and the onset of competition that drives quality up and cost down. The early adoption contingent help to make that process more rapid, and by their actions - and willingness to risk resouces on the new new things in this world - make it more likely that future research and technological development will be funded.
Technorati tags: economics, life extension
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Posted by Reason
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