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A better hypothetical would be to imagine a treatment that adds 5 years to your life span. Whatever your life span would have been, spend $150k and add 5 years to it.
From this it's possible to easily imagine 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1, the government appropriates the treatment for the "public good". It doesn't have to pay for the development cost or profit so it is able to give everyone in the US access to the treatment for, say $15k. People of low income get government assistance to pay for the treatment courtesy of higher taxes and giant government bureaucracy.
Great, right? Everyone in the US who wants it gets to live 5 years longer. There's some downside to higher taxes, and the people who spent a lot of money or effort into developing the treatment are pissed off at not making a profit off it, but that's a decent trade off right?
Scenario 2, a lot of rich people pay $150k a pop to live 5 years longer. Eventually, the development cost of the treatment is paid off, so the makers can lower the price while maintaining the same profit. Also, over time various ways of cutting the cost of the treatment become apparent, allowing the makers to give the treatment at lower cost with a smaller profit margin, but available to more people so their total profit continues to grow. Eventually other companies license the treatment and start offering it as well, the price continues to drop until it costs 1/10th then 1/100th the original price, and it continues falling.
Furthermore, spurred by the massive profit of the 5 year extension treatment, the makers and many other companies spend massive amounts of effort and money into improving the treatment and making new, similar treatments. They release 7 year treatments, 10 year treatments, and 15 year treatments. Initially these are incredibly expensive, but just as before the cost will come down as development costs are paid off and improvements are realized due to experience and competition.
The result here is that eventually nearly everyone in the country will be able to afford to pay for their own dirt cheap 15 year life extension.
Scenario 2 has played out in the medical field, and other industries, too many times to ignore. It's how the western world has clawed it's way up to 70 and 80 year long average life spans, and lives of better overall health. And it's how we'll claw our way to 120, 150 year healthy life spans. It's the same process that turned microwave ovens, DVD players, and LCD televisions from expensive, rare luxury goods into commodity goods so cheap and ubiquitous that everyone can afford them.
Don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
[Posted by: Robin Goodfellow at September 22, 2009 3:55 PM]
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