An Animation of Past and Future Longevity Trends

Via Calculated Risk, an animated chart that aptly illustrates the gains in life expectancy over the past 60 years and a set of very conservative projections out to 2050. "The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau. Watch for the original baby bust preceding the baby boom. Those are the people currently in retirement. With the original baby bust now at the age of peak health care expenses, these are the best of times (from a demographics perspective) for health care. Animation updates every 2 seconds." You might compare this with Anders Sandberg's recent models - at some point over the next decade or so we should expect to see the "official" projections adjusted upward or shown to be overly conservative. The uncertainty introducted by advancing biotechnology is a very important topic in actuarial circles these days; a great deal of money rests on being right about the future of longevity, and being right is now harder than ever.



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