An Aging Clock to Predict Time Until First Alzheimer's Disease Symptoms
In recent years, the research community has developed a number of blood tests to assess risk and progression of Alzheimer's disease, relevant to the earliest, pre-symptomatic stages of the condition. Alzheimer's disease emerges very slowly over time, a process of damage and dysfunction that builds by stages over decades. The present consensus is that these early stages are dominated by amyloid-β misfolding and aggregation with only mild cognitive impairment at worst as the result. Only later is it the case that outright neuroinflammation and aggregation of phosphorylated tau protein come into play as the primary disease mechanisms. Nonetheless, forms of phosphorylated tau circulating in blood have proven useful as a marker of disease progression even in the early stages.
Today's research materials report on the use of one of the Alzheimer's blood tests based on phosphorylated tau to construct an aging clock specifically focused on predicting the time to development of Alzheimer's symptoms. Any set of markers that change with age can be used to produce a predictive clock, given enough data from enough people. The only question is how accurate it is; more data is generally better. Here, researchers work from only one assessment in a few hundred people to produce an estimated margin of error of 3 to 4 years over a time span of 10 to 20 years of disease development to first symptoms - a decent outcome given such a limited set of data.
Blood test "clocks" predict when Alzheimer's symptoms will start
Researchers have demonstrated models that predict the onset of Alzheimer's symptoms within a margin of three to four years. This could have implications both for clinical trials developing preventive Alzheimer's treatments and for eventually identifying individuals likely to benefit from these treatments. The models use a protein called p-tau217 in an individual's blood plasma to estimate the age when they will begin experiencing symptoms of the neurodegenerative disease. Levels of p-tau217 in the plasma can currently be used to help doctors diagnose Alzheimer's in patients with cognitive impairment. These tests are not currently recommended in cognitively unimpaired individuals outside of clinical trials or research.
To identify the interval between elevated p-tau217 levels and Alzheimer's symptoms, researchers analyzed data from volunteers in two independent long-running Alzheimer's research initiatives. The participants included 603 older adults who lived independently in the community. Plasma p-tau217 has previously been shown to correlate strongly with the accumulation of amyloid and tau in the brain as shown on PET scans. The key hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease, amyloid and tau are misfolded proteins that begin building up in the brain many years before Alzheimer's symptoms develop.
The models predicted the age of symptom onset within a margin of error of three to four years. Older individuals had a shorter time from when elevated p-tau217 appeared to the start of symptoms as compared to younger participants, suggesting that younger people's brains may be more resilient to neurodegeneration and that older people may develop symptoms at lower levels of Alzheimer's pathology. For example, if a person had elevated p-tau217 in their plasma at age 60, they developed symptoms 20 years later. If p-tau217 wasn't elevated until age 80, they developed symptoms only 11 years later.
Predicting onset of symptomatic Alzheimerʼs disease with plasma p-tau217 clocks
Predicting not just if, but also when, cognitively unimpaired individuals are likely to develop onset of Alzheimerʼs disease (AD) symptoms would be useful to clinical trials and, eventually, clinical practice. Although clock models based on amyloid and tau positron emission tomography have shown promise in predicting the onset of AD symptoms, a model based on plasma biomarkers would be more accessible. Using longitudinal plasma %p-tau217 (the ratio of phosphorylated to non-phosphorylated tau at position 217) from two independent cohorts (n = 258 and n = 345), clock models were used to estimate the age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity.
The estimated age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity was associated with the age at onset of AD symptoms with a median absolute error of 3.0-3.7 years. Notably, the time from %p-tau217 positivity to onset of AD symptoms was markedly shorter in older individuals. Similar models were constructed with data from one p-tau217/Aβ42 immunoassay and four plasma p-tau217 immunoassays. These findings suggest that the time until onset of AD symptoms can be estimated using a single blood test within a margin of error that is acceptable for use in clinical trials.