Projecting out Current Life Expectancy Trends to 2030

I think it a given that trend projection at the present time is going to greatly underestimate gains in life expectancy over the next few decades. This present decade and the next encompass a transition from palliative and compensatory medicine that inadequately patches over the causes of aging, and a research community that has no interest in treating aging itself as a medical condition, to a field of rejuvenation treatments that do actually address the forms of cell and tissue damage that cause degenerative aging, and a research community that is now very interested in working towards therapies for aging. Past gains have occurred despite the fact that research and development efforts made no attempt to treat root causes in aging. Future gains, produced by those actually trying to address aging, will be larger and occur more rapidly.

A new study analysed long-term data on mortality and longevity trends to predict how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialised countries by 2030. Nations in the study included both high-income countries, such as the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, and emerging economies such as Poland, Mexico and the Czech Republic. The study revealed all nations in the study can expect to see an increase in life expectancy by 2030. The results also found that South Koreans may have the highest life expectancy in the world in 2030. "The increase in average life expectancy in high income countries is due to the over-65s living longer than ever before. In middle-income countries, the number of premature deaths - i.e. people dying in their forties and fifties, will also decline by 2030."

The team calculated life expectancy at birth, and predicted a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will expect to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for South Korean men will be 84.1 years. The researchers also calculated how long a 65-year-old person may expect to live in 2030. The results revealed that the average 65-year-old woman in South Korea in 2030 may live an additional 27.5 years. Scientists once thought an average life expectancy of over 90 was impossible. "We repeatedly hear that improvements in human longevity are about to come to an end. Many people used to believe that 90 years is the upper limit for life expectancy, but this research suggests we will break the 90-year-barrier. I don't believe we're anywhere near the upper limit of life expectancy - if there even is one."

French women and Swiss men were predicted to have the highest life expectancies at birth in Europe in 2030, with an average life expectancy of 88.6 years for French women and nearly 84 years for Swiss men. The results also revealed that the USA is likely to have the lowest life expectancy at birth in 2030 among high-income countries. The nation's average life expectancy at birth of men and women in 2030 (79.5 years and 83.3 years), will be similar to that of middle-income countries like Croatia and Mexico. The team also predicted a 65-year-old UK man in 2030 could expect to live an additional 20.9 years (12th in the table of countries), while a 65-year-old woman in the UK could expect to live an additional 22.7 years, up (22nd in the table of countries). The research also suggested the gap in life expectancy between women and men is closing. "Men traditionally had unhealthier lifestyles, and so shorter life expectancies. They smoked and drank more, and had more road traffic accidents and homicides. However as lifestyles become more similar between men and women, so does their longevity."

Link: http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_21-2-2017-15-33-52

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