Data for COVID-19 Mortality in Older People in the US

The general consensus on mortality due to COVID-19 is that it falls most heavily on people who are more impacted by aging: poor immune function when it comes to defense against pathogens; high levels of chronic inflammation that create a greater susceptibility to the way in which SARS-CoV-2 kills people; existing chronic disease; and a mortality rate that is already high even setting aside the pandemic. When younger people die due to the virus, in much smaller numbers, it is where they share these characteristics of inflammation, deficient immune systems, and chronic disease. This level of morbidity is unusual in younger individuals, but very prevalent in the old.

In today's open access commentary we see that COVID-19 mortality in older people is becoming comparable to that of the major age-related conditions, such as cancer. Those killed by COVID-19 are largely people with greater degrees of frailty and a shorter remaining life expectancy. We might see mortality fall significantly in the next few years, after the present pandemic mortality subsides due to the combination of vaccination and immunity to this virus. An appreciable fraction of those individuals who would have survived to die of non-communicable age-related conditions in 2021 or 2022 are dying now.

As to the numbers themselves, COVID-19 appears to continue to be on track to be at the worse end of the expected 3 to 6 times multiple of a bad influenza year: 300,000 deaths in the US versus 60,000 for the 2017-2018 influenza season. While there are numerous lessons to be taken from the past year regarding the behavior of highly regulated organizations and services, none of which are likely to be heeded, the most important lesson for the long term is that (a) old people are vulnerable to infection precisely because they have a failing immune system, and (b) there are many clear and obvious research projects that offer the potential to rejuvenate the aged immune system. Regrowing the thymus, restoring hematopoietic stem cell function, clearing out worn and damaged immune cells, and so forth. A great deal more funding and attention should be given to these lines of research.

COVID-19 as the Leading Cause of Death in the United States

A helpful approach to put the effects of the pandemic in context is to compare COVID-19-related mortality rates with the leading causes of death that, under ordinary circumstances, would pose the greatest threat to different age groups. The conditions listed in the table include the three leading causes of death in each of the 10 age groups from infancy to old age. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the table shows mortality rates for these conditions during the period of March through October 2018 (the most recent year for which detailed cause-of-death data are available) with COVID-19 mortality rates during March through October 2020.

The table shows that by October 2020 COVID-19 had become the third leading cause of death for persons aged 45 through 84 years and the second leading cause of death for those aged 85 years or older. Adults 45 years or older were more likely to die from COVID-19 during those months than from chronic lower respiratory disease, transport accidents (eg, motor vehicle fatalities), drug overdoses, suicide, or homicide. In contrast, for individuals younger than age 45 years, other causes of death, such as drug overdoses, suicide, transport accidents, cancer, and homicide exceeded those from COVID-19.

Between November 1, 2020, and December 13, 2020, the 7-day moving average for daily COVID-19 deaths tripled, from 826 to 2430 deaths per day, and if this trend is unabated will soon surpass the daily rate observed at the height of the spring surge (2856 deaths per day on April 21, 2020). As occurred in the spring, COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death in the United States (daily mortality rates for heart disease and cancer, which for decades have been the two leading causes of death, are approximately 1700 and 1600 deaths per day, respectively). With COVID-19 mortality rates now exceeding these thresholds, this infectious disease has become deadlier than heart disease and cancer, and its lethality may increase further as transmission increases with holiday travel and gatherings and with the intensified indoor exposure that winter brings.

Comments

This is why rolling out Greg Fahy's thymus regeneration protocol would be the most effective way to end this COVID-19 business. I suspect the reason why the medical establishment refuses to even consider this approach is because there are too many insiders profiting from the roll out of a vaccine instead. It all greed and corruption.

Posted by: Abelard Lindsey at December 23rd, 2020 4:05 PM

@Abelard Lindsey: Nope. Many people always think of conspiracies when the answer is usually much simpler. Look for example at the recent DRACO fundraising from Kimer Med. They didn't raised even 50% of their modest target. In today's world, people that have money don't like radical ideas, and people that like radical ideas don't have money. It's that simple.

Posted by: Antonio at December 23rd, 2020 4:42 PM

I read Matt Ridley's book "How Innovation Works" recently. Basically the tl;dr central thesis is that innovation comes from lots of people in a loose network who are free to experiment with products and improve them.

Unfortunatley the costs the FDA and others impose on testing kills this ability to innovate by massively raising costs, but also massively increasing the amount of time before sign off approval for an experiment to go ahead is given.

If the guys at Kimer Med could just inject a few friends with COVID-19 and then DRACO to see what happens, well we'd get more new medicines faster. Obvously there are some safety issues with this though experiment, but at some point there is also too much safety.

The public for various reasons don't care about this problem, so politicians don't care either.

There are also vested interests in keeping the regulatory burden high. If big companies are the only ones that can afford to play in a commercial arena, then they typically will be able to earn excess profits. A good example of innovation hurting big Pharma is the recent spread of Vape pens which has massively impacted on Big Pharma's sale of smoking quit aids such as nitcotine lozengers and patches (which don't work well). They have spent load of money actively lobbying the EU to try and restrict or ban the sales of Vape pens. I suspect this shenanigans goes on in other medical areas too.

Posted by: jimofoz at December 24th, 2020 8:09 AM

jimofoz: The public is a cause of the problem too. For example, this week a poll was released saying that 28% of Spanish people will not accept being vaccinated against covid because they don't trust current vaccines.

Posted by: Antonio at December 24th, 2020 10:57 AM

Nope, the corruption in both the medical profession and the political establishment is the only cause of the problem, there is a great degree of public distrust towards many areas of the medical profession (and rightly so), especially fields that are intertwined with strong profit motives and nefarious political agendas.

If 28% of the Spanish will not accept the vaccine that means that 72% are still misinformed zombies who have blindly relegated their health concerns to supposedly more qualified authorities.

Posted by: Sancho at December 24th, 2020 2:17 PM

Consider the following from Josh Mitteldorf:

https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com/2020/10/06/ten-elements-of-the-false-covid-narrative-first-5/

https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com/2020/10/10/ten-elements-of-the-false-covid-narrative-last-5/

Along with the complete lack of interest on the part of the medical establishment in Todd Riders' DRACO and Greg Fahy's thymus regeneration for combating COVID-19.

Do you still think there is no agenda with regards to this COVID-19 business?

Now it could all just be bureaucratic inertia and group think. It probably is. But that does bring up the question: Do you want bureaucratic inertia and group think to have influence over your personal life decisions, especially your personal life extension strategy?

Some of you guys are not thinking straight on this matter.

Posted by: Abelard Lindsey at December 24th, 2020 3:44 PM

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Calling all social media influencers and life extension activists...

๐Ÿ’‰What if the vaccine was successful and Covid-19 ๐Ÿฆ  was stamped out? ๐Ÿ˜ท

๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ”ฌ๐Ÿ“๐Ÿ‘ฉ๐Ÿพโ€๐Ÿ”ฌ๐Ÿ”ฌWhat if the world just kept on solving the diseases of aging one by one at warp speed?

๐Ÿ“‹Aubrey de Grey has provided the plan for this with his Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) and we could reach Longevity Escape Velocity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) in 20-25 years, or maybe even less, by focusing on ending aging now!!๐Ÿง‘โ€โš•๏ธ๐Ÿ‘จโ€โš•๏ธ

โš”๏ธRight now there is a will to do something about the diseases of aging. If we don't seize the opportunity to continue the fight, we will have lost a billion-dollar opportunity to solve our ๐Ÿ’ฒquadrillion-dollar aging problem once and for all!.

๐ŸŽ—๏ธThe problems of Life Extension (aging and death) has an enormous psychological dimension which the public is tuned into right now, but they will forget and go back to the previous level of awareness if we let them๐Ÿฅฑ.

The pandemic has left millions unemployed with so many entrepreneurs out on the street. Let us retool American Industry and set them to work in a vibrant new longevity industry (https://www.longevity-book.com/) to cure aging ASAP!๐Ÿ“–

๐Ÿค” LET'S DO THIS!!! ๐Ÿšง ๐Ÿ— ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป ๐Ÿ‘ท ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿ’ผ ๐Ÿšง

Posted by: Frank Rummel at December 25th, 2020 1:30 PM

That 28% is made of ignorants and idiots more affraid of a vaccine than of the virus it fights against.

Posted by: Antonio at December 26th, 2020 1:43 AM

Aging Endothelium Cells as vector:
"Endothelium is typically in much better condition in children than adults. "A kid's endothelium is set up perfectly and then just deteriorates with age," says Paul Monagle, a paediatric haematologist at the Melbourne Children's Campus.
Monagle and others think that children's blood vessels are able to withstand a viral attack than adults. Further support for this theory is the observation that few children with COVID-19 present with excessive clotting and damaged vessels, he says."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01692-z

Posted by: Jim Coli at December 28th, 2020 9:34 AM

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